In a groundbreaking revelation, Bloomberg's ETF research analysts, Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart, have uncovered a tantalizing opportunity: a window of just eight days during which the Securities and Exchange Commission (S.E.C) could potentially approve all 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications, and this momentous period could commence as early as tomorrow.
"If the agency wants to allow all twelve filers to launch – as we believe – this is the first available window since Grayscale's court victory was affirmed," Seyffart noted with a sense of anticipation.
According to data meticulously compiled by Balchunas and Seyffart, this narrow window for approval is set to close on November 17th. Even in the event that not all 12 ETFs receive the green light within the next eight days, Balchunas and Seyffart confidently assert that there remains a 90% chance of approval by January 10th, 2024.
Today, Bitcoin, reaching heights of around $35,000, has continued its ascent after the market tumult of May 2022. This resurgence may well mark the end of an extended lull in the cryptocurrency space, with Bitcoin's value poised to ascend further, buoyed by the prospect of spot ETF approval.
If these ETFs are approved, it will signify the culmination of nearly a decade of determined efforts to bring a spot Bitcoin ETF to the market.
The news of this impending approval window could represent the final chapter in a protracted dispute. The dispute began when Grayscale Investments, a digital currency asset management firm, endeavored to convert almost $17 billion of GBTC into a spot ETF. However, in June 2022, the S.E.C. rebuffed their application, citing inadequacy in meeting anti-fraud and investor protection standards.
U.S. Court of Appeals Judge Neomi Rao invalidated the S.E.C.'s original decision, contending that "the Commission failed to explain its different treatment of similar products."
"Grayscale's primary argument is straightforward: the Commission acted arbitrarily and capriciously by denying the listing of Grayscale's proposed bitcoin ETP and approving the listing of materially similar bitcoin futures ETPs," asserted the filing.
Grayscale Investments initially applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF in October 2021, but the appellate court's ruling, cemented last month, has brought an end to this longstanding feud.
The potential approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs heralds a new era of crypto regulation, offering investors and market enthusiasts greater access to regulated Bitcoin transactions. Nonetheless, Grayscale Investments isn't the sole contender vying for a spot in this burgeoning market. Alongside this asset management firm, there are others awaiting approval, including VanEck Bitcoin Trust, Invesco Gallery Bitcoin ETF, and Wise Origin Bitcoin Trust, among others. The future holds the answer to whether they'll secure the coveted approval in the days to come.
