Apple is poised to announce its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday, marking the end of its fiscal year and the first financial report reflecting sales from the much-anticipated iPhone 16 launch. With expectations running high, investors are eager to see how the company navigates this crucial period.
Analysts project earnings per share to hit $1.60 and revenue to reach approximately $94.58 billion. However, the spotlight will be on what Apple reveals regarding its upcoming December quarter—typically the company's largest sales period. Insights into iPhone sales and the potential revenue boost from the introduction of Apple Intelligence will be closely scrutinized.
While Apple does not provide formal guidance, it often shares key insights during its analyst calls, hinting at sales growth and performance across various product lines, particularly the iPhone, which remains a significant revenue driver. In the absence of concrete guidance, investors have been examining surveys and shipping schedules on Apple’s website for clues about consumer demand.
Current assessments from analysts depict a mixed demand landscape. Morgan Stanley analyst Erik Woodring noted, “We have not heard of any iPhone build cuts in our checks, but after a month of tracking iPhone 16 demand indicators, we’d characterize iPhone demand as mixed.” The rollout of Apple Intelligence—a feature set that will enhance the user experience—is also being monitored closely, with support for multiple languages set to expand over the next year.
D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria expressed caution, suggesting that an upgrade cycle may not be in full swing yet. “While iPhone sales will be on everybody’s mind when AAPL reports, the stream of data points indicates that there is little reason to believe an upgrade cycle has started,” he stated, pointing to the gradual introduction of Apple Intelligence features.
Carrier executives have also expressed uncertainty regarding the upgrade cycle, with AT&T CEO John Stankey remarking, “We’re still waiting for the software release and whether or not that software release drives interest in the consumer base.”
In greater China, sales pressures have intensified, with a 6% decline in the most recent quarterly report due to rising competition from local brands like Huawei. Citi analyst Malif Atik highlighted that, despite the iPhone launch, Apple still faces stiff competition in the region. However, research firm Counterpoint Research noted a positive trend, reporting a 20% increase in iPhone 16 series sales in China compared to the previous year’s iPhone 15 series during the same period.
Attention will also be on Apple’s wearables segment, which includes the Apple Watch and AirPods. New models launched this quarter, featuring larger screens for watches and noise-canceling capabilities for AirPods, could reverse a trend of declining sales over the past four quarters. Analysts anticipate about 5.6% revenue growth, bringing total revenue close to $95 billion.
This report is particularly noteworthy as it may be the last with CFO Luca Maestri, who will step down on January 1, to be succeeded by his longtime deputy, Kevan Parekh. Maestri will remain with Apple, overseeing specific teams focused on IT, real estate, and security.
As anticipation builds for the earnings report, all eyes will be on Apple to assess its performance and future growth prospects in an increasingly competitive landscape.
